Why operators are moving from paying for reach to paying for guaranteed delivery

The average cost per acquisition in regulated iGaming markets reached around $145 in 2026, 12% higher than a year earlier, according to industry estimates. At the same time, 68% of new CPA and hybrid contracts only pay commission when the player reaches a minimum deposit and an activity threshold, up from 55% two years ago. Operators are paying more, and they are asking for proof before they pay.

The scenario

The shape of acquisition deals is changing. Hybrid agreements, which combine a fixed amount per player with a share of revenue, now represent 41% of new contracts, ahead of pure revenue share. The market is also concentrating: the top 20 partners of a typical affiliate programme generate an estimated 74% of its revenue.

Quality is the other pressure point. Around 14% of affiliate sign-ups are flagged for fraud review, and about 4.6% of gross commission is reversed or withheld after investigation. Multi-accounting and bonus abuse lead the list.

What it means

Rising costs and stricter validation point in the same direction. Operators no longer want to buy impressions, clicks or sign-ups and hope they turn into active players. They want to know, before investing, how many qualified players a campaign will deliver and at what cost.

For media partners, this changes the conversation. Reach and creative ideas still matter, but they are not enough. The partner who can commit to a result, and has the operation to deliver it, becomes the safer choice.

How to react

Define what a valid first-time depositor means for you. Minimum deposit, required activity and validation window should be agreed before the campaign starts.
Ask for a contracted delivery range. A partner confident in its operation should be able to commit to a minimum and expected volume.
Require server-to-server tracking. It reduces discrepancies and speeds up validation.
Get reporting by traffic source. Know which creators, channels and markets bring players who stay.
Compare partners on the right metric. Cost per valid first-time depositor and retention tell you more than cost per click or cost per lead.
Build quality clauses into the contract. Fraud thresholds and replacement terms protect both sides.

Our model is built on operational certainty. Before a campaign starts, we agree on a contracted range of first-time depositors with each client, and we structure creators, media assets and markets to deliver it. To date, our campaigns have generated more than 65,000 first-time depositors across more than 25 countries.

Data and measurement are part of how we work, but they are a means, not the pitch. What our clients buy is the confidence that the result they planned for is the result they will get.

Let’s talk

If you want to plan your next campaign around a guaranteed delivery range instead of estimates, talk to us about how Smart Social can structure it for your markets.

Sources: Track360, State of iGaming Affiliate Marketing 2026